Half-Way There: Retail Beef Performance at the Summer Midpoint

According to the Farmers’ Almanac, the official midpoint of Summer occurred on August 7, 2023. This also means that we are approaching the end of summer grilling season, which typically runs from Memorial Day through Labor Day.  Summer grilling season is typically one of the best seasons for beef sales, with 28% of the total 2022 beef sales by volume occurring in the 15 weeks between Memorial Day and Labor Day.¹ Given the vitality of this period to retail beef performance and the rollercoaster of uncertainty so far in 2023, many industry stakeholders may be wondering how the 2023 summer grilling season is comparing with years past. 

Retail Performance

As of the first 7 weeks of the 2023 summer grilling season, 738.3 million pounds of beef worth an estimated $4.8 billion have been sold at retail markets.² These sales constitute a 4% decline in terms of volume sold and a 3% increase in terms of dollars sold when compared to a similar timeframe in 2022.^1,2 The inverse relationship between the change in volume and dollar sales points to an increasing price per pound, which has increased 6.9% over the same timeframe. Figure 1 sums up the movements of beef dollar sales during the 2022 and 2023 summer grilling seasons. 

Figure 1 shows that 2023 beef sales have been tracking similarly to 2022 sales, with a jump around the 4th of July holiday in 2023 compared to 2022. 2022 sales saw a drop after July before jumping up for the Labor Day holiday. 

Considering that inflationary pressures and general economic headwinds have been abating recently, one can expect a similar jump in sales around the 2023 Labor Day holiday. Beef cut performance at retail shares a similar story to beef overall, with dollars sold being up on average, while pounds sold being slightly below 2022 levels. Figure 2 shows the relative performance of popular summer beef cuts at retail. 

Brisket sales have seen a decline in both volume and dollar sales compared to the first 7 weeks of the 2022 summer grilling season, showing that consumers may be less willing to purchase such a large quantity of beef at one time compared to last year. 

However, it should be noted that the first 7 weeks of the 2022 summer grilling season were very good for briskets, as volume sales were 14% higher than in a similar timeframe in 2021 and 11% higher than in a similar timeframe in 2020.^1,3,4 Value-added beef products (products that have been pre-seasoned or pre-prepared in some way) are one of the few beef sub-categories experiencing sales increases in both dollars and pounds, showing that consumers may be placing increased preference in convenient food options this summer grilling season compared to 2022. 

Consumer Sentiment

Sales trends observed so far this summer mirror consumer sentiment revealed at the kick-off of the summer grilling season. Figure 3 shows that consumers indicated they plan to grill 7 times per month this summer grilling season, which they estimate to be about the same as last year.⁵ The most popular beef products they plan to grill include burgers, beef hot dogs, and beef sausages and brats – convenient options that typically come with a lower price point. Although enthusiasm for grilling remains high, consumers reported having concerns with the cost of meat (53%) and overall cost of groceries (48%), and in response, 37% said they plan to buy different or less expensive cuts of meat than they normally would.⁵ 

 Looking forward to the remainder of the summer grilling season, 2 of the top 4 “grilling occasions” are still forthcoming, with 73% of consumers planning to grill for weekend meals and 70% planning to grill over Labor Day weekend.⁵

Conclusion

There is little doubt that the recent easing of economic pressures such as a cooling of inflation (although food inflation rates remain sticky), increased consumer sentiment, and a tight labor market have helped keep consumers purchasing beef products in a similar manner to years past. As the 2023 summer grilling season begins to wind down, look for continued consumer enthusiasm and preference toward convenient, budget-friendly products. The retail sector will likely experience a bump around Labor Day weekend before consumers return to typical spending patterns and the industry begins to prepare for the holiday season. 

Sources:

1. NielsenIQ, Discover, Weekly Retail Beef Sales, weeks ending 06/04/22 – 09/10/22. 

 2. NielsenIQ, Discover, Weekly Retail Beef Sales, weeks ending 06/03/23 – 07/15/23. 

 3. NielsenIQ, Discover, Weekly Retail Beef Sales, weeks ending 06/06/20 – 07/18/20. 

 4. NielsenIQ, Discover, Weekly Retail Beef Sales, weeks ending 06/05/21 – 07/17/21. 

5. Summer Grilling Survey 2023. Survey conducted by the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, a contractor to the Beef Checkoff.